Usually I try to blog on topics where I can offer a smidge of expertise or experience. On the Middle East, I have neither (beyond the Iranian exiles who befriended me at my first post-college job, and a rudimentary knowledge of their history). Tonight, I write only because I am moved by the courage of the people taking to the streets, first in Tunisia and now in Egypt and Yemen. I am frightened for their safety. I am awed at the transformative potential they are unleashing for their countries and for the entire Arab world.
Perhaps Iran circa 1979 isn’t such a poor comparison? In a lot of ways, the situation in Egypt reminds me of the Iranian Revolution that brought the Ayatollah to power. A dictator long supported by the United States is challenged by mass uprisings. A people long yearning for self-determination takes to the streets. Islamists waiting in the wings. A substantial secular opposition.
Will the U.S. learn from our mistakes in Iran?
Back in 1979, Jimmy Carter openly professed American loyalty to the Shah. Obama has not done the same for Mubarak, though Joe Biden has proclaimed Mubarek “not a dictator.” I suspect Biden was running off at the mouth with about as much forethought as when he called Obama “clean and articulate.” Thoughtless pronouncements could cost lives. Might this be a good time for Biden to be called up for jury duty again?
As for what the U.S. should do, Goldblog’s take seems about right to me:
President Obama would be standing for American values if he encouraged Hosni Mubarak to leave office now. Mubarak (and his son, it is almost needless to say) have no credibility, and the U.S. will have no credibility if it doesn’t support the aspirations of these frustrated protesters. Will the Muslim Brotherhood follow in the wake of Mubarak’s downfall? Not necessarily. But the U.S. will make that possibility less remote if it doesn’t stand with the people now.
I’m not downplaying the threat the Muslim Brotherhood poses, to America or to Israel. And I fear for the future of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty. And there is a chance this regime could survive, for a while. But these facts are overwhelmed by the reality on the streets.
I’m not sure it would be prudent for Obama to call publicly for Mubarak to step down. I’m queasy with fear that the protestors could be massacred, Tiananmen-style. But couldn’t the U.S. quietly arrange for Mubarak’s safe passage out of Egypt to a friendly third country? Not to the U.S., please! Iran convulsed with rage after the Shah was allowed to come here for medical shelter. We don’t want to embolden the theocrats in Egypt. It’s bad enough that they can rally just anger against the U.S. for its thirty-year policy of supporting Mubarak despite human rights abuses. It doesn’t help, either, that the tear gas canisters used against the protesters are labeled “Made in the U.S.A.” Mubarek also can’t just emulate the Shah, whose first and last station in exile was … Egypt.
But surely we still have no shortage of despots among our friends? One or the other ought to be open to a bribe for harboring Mubarak. We can just call it, y’know, foreign aid. If the U.S. eased Mubarak’s departure , we could then provide succor to the more secular and democratic-minded protesters. As long as Mubarak remains, open U.S. support for the protesters risks triggering a crackdown.
On a less analytical note, I was floored by the fact that the Egyptian government could just shut the whole damn Internet down. I thought the distributed nature of the net was supposed to prevent such centralized censorship? Evidently an oligopoly of ISPs existed, which enabled the Internet to be shut down by taking those ISPs offline. The proximate cause was apparently government intimidation of the ISPs. I still don’t claim to understand it fully, but the graph of Internet usage in Egypt is stunning:
The sun is rising on Cairo, Suez, Alexandria. I hope that Egyptians – and Tunisians and Yemeni – are waking up to a day when no protesters will be gravely harmed. A day that brings them a little closer to democracy and self-determination. A day that repeats itself until it becomes months and years. May it someday be remembered as the dawn of a new era.
Patron cat of Kittywampus (1985-2001)
I have been thinking about this a lot since the events began unfolding in Tunisia. I have a friend in Alexandria and I have to admit that I am really concerned about his safety.
In a comment to one of your recent posts, I stated that I’d eliminate all military aid as one of my first measures to reduce deficit spending (saving about $5.5 billion). You can buy a lot of CS gas with the $1.3 billion per year that the Egyptian military gets from the “Foreign Military Financing” program run through the State Department. I bet lots of that hardware in the footage was made in the good old US of A, paid for by us. The reality is that (much of) the equipment our government supplies to authoritarian regimes can be, and is being, used as tools of suppression. I am sure this enters the calculus when decisions are being made by the SD, DoD and “intelligence” community over what to export, and not in a way that we would approve of. Plus it is easy to make propaganda waving a “Made in USA” tear gas canister, conflating the US with support of particular authoritarian regimes. In that way, I regard the FMF program as overwhelmingly counter productive.
It seems like we should be able to cut off Mubarak’s aid. Obama should just do it quietly, behind the scenes, as a signal that the U.S. will no longer have Mubarak’s back. It would be much cheaper to fly him in style to Saudia Arabia, one-way, assuming the Saudis would be willing to take him.
I would be worried about your friend, too. It seems like the snipers have backed off. Much of the army has gone over to the crowd’s side, from what I’ve read. But still, it’s an explosive situation. The people out in the streets have my wholehearted admiration.
Heard from my friend. Its terrifying, but he’s OK. Confirmed that the government emptied the jails of violent felons, pulled the police and just let loose chaos.
I strongly suspect that what we are seeing just now is the last throw of the dice from Mubarak. I wager that the pro-government “demonstrators” are the components of the security apparatus in a change of clothes. They know that if there is real change they themselves – at best – lose their jobs, and likely face imprisonment and worse for their roles in repression. Shades of Iran.
It reflects appallingly on our successive governments that we have been instrumental in bringing all this about.
Very glad to hear that your friend is safe. All reports seem to be that the “pro-Mubarak” forces are political plants – police and secret police, and other thugs. And yes, it’s pathetic that every administration, Republican and Democrat, has supported Mubarak and other dictators in the name of “stability” and “peace.” I do recognize the importance of Egypt in providing some security for Israel. It just seems like in the long run, our support for dictators is creating blowback that will undermine peace and stability.